Polls on Irish Unity are Unreliable

Gudgin, Graham (2021) Polls on Irish Unity are Unreliable. Birmingham City University, Centre for Brexit Studies Blog.

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Abstract

DISCLAIMER: All blog posts are written in a personal capacity and do not necessarily reflect the views of CBS or BCU.

A somewhat eccentric BBCNI TV programme last week on its ‘Spotlight’ current affairs slot was titled ‘A Contested Centenary’. It included new poll results on Irish Unity and an interview with Boris Johnson. The poll results from Lucidtalk showed 49% wishing to remain in the UK and 43% in support of Irish Unity. This might be viewed by unionists as too close for comfort but is in fact unlikely to be a reliable guide to actual public opinion. The reason is that in Lucidtalk polls the sample is drawn from individuals who have volunteered to take part in a range of polls. In any voluntary panel those with strong political views are likely to be over-represented especially on highly emotive issues like Irish unity. Importantly, it is difficult to prevent those who wish to manipulate results from registering several different identities.

Item Type: Other
Dates:
DateEvent
6 May 2021Published Online
Uncontrolled Keywords: Centre for Brexit Studies, CBS, Brexit, BCU, EU, European Union, UK, Birmingham City University, UK Government, UK politics
Subjects: CAH15 - social sciences > CAH15-03 - politics > CAH15-03-01 - politics
Divisions: Research, Innovation, Enterprise and Professional Services > Centre for Brexit Studies
Depositing User: Alex De Ruyter
Date Deposited: 11 Feb 2022 16:10
Last Modified: 11 Feb 2022 16:10
URI: http://www.open-access.bcu.ac.uk/id/eprint/12829

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