What Kind of Brexit Are We Heading Towards? Reflections on the Current State of Play.

de Ruyter, A. and Hearne, D. (2018) What Kind of Brexit Are We Heading Towards? Reflections on the Current State of Play. Birmingham City University, Birmingham.

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Abstract

In this blog, we review the current state of Brexit negotiations and the likely economic outcomes from each. The overwhelming majority of economic models estimate that Brexit will have a negative long-term impact on GDP, although there is a relatively wide spread of estimates depending on the precise assumptions made and what kind of Brexit actually occurs. Forecasting short-term growth on the basis of these estimates is not really possible: the most likely outcome is a prolonged period where the economy underperforms relative to its previous potential (i.e. positive but low growth). However, there is certainly a risk of a sharper slowdown in the event of a disorderly Brexit.

Item Type: Other
Subjects: L100 Economics
L200 Politics
Divisions: Research, Innovation, Enterprise and Institutes > Centre for Brexit Studies
Depositing User: Jessica Guy
Date Deposited: 10 Aug 2018 14:04
Last Modified: 10 Aug 2018 14:04
URI: http://www.open-access.bcu.ac.uk/id/eprint/6158

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