What Kind of Brexit Are We Heading Towards? Reflections on the Current State of Play.
de Ruyter, A. and Hearne, David (2018) What Kind of Brexit Are We Heading Towards? Reflections on the Current State of Play. Birmingham City University, Birmingham.
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What Kind of Brexit are we Heading Towards 23.07.18.07.18.pdf - Published Version Download (512kB) |
Abstract
In this blog, we review the current state of Brexit negotiations and the likely economic outcomes from each. The overwhelming majority of economic models estimate that Brexit will have a negative long-term impact on GDP, although there is a relatively wide spread of estimates depending on the precise assumptions made and what kind of Brexit actually occurs. Forecasting short-term growth on the basis of these estimates is not really possible: the most likely outcome is a prolonged period where the economy underperforms relative to its previous potential (i.e. positive but low growth). However, there is certainly a risk of a sharper slowdown in the event of a disorderly Brexit.
| Item Type: | Other | ||||
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| Subjects: | CAH15 - social sciences > CAH15-02 - economics > CAH15-02-01 - economics CAH15 - social sciences > CAH15-03 - politics > CAH15-03-01 - politics |
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| Divisions: | Research, Innovation, Enterprise and Professional Services > Centre for Brexit Studies | ||||
| Depositing User: | Jessica Guy | ||||
| Date Deposited: | 10 Aug 2018 14:04 | ||||
| Last Modified: | 08 Mar 2022 16:37 | ||||
| URI: | https://www.open-access.bcu.ac.uk/id/eprint/6158 |
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