Impact of oil price shocks on Sudan's government budget

Rahma, Elsiddig and Perera, Noel and Tan, Kian (2016) Impact of oil price shocks on Sudan's government budget. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 6 (2). pp. 243-248. ISSN 2146-4553

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Abstract

There is well established literature on the negative relationship between oil price shocks and aggregate macroeconomic activities for developed economies. However, there is a paucity of similar empirical studies in developing countries. In this respect, Sudan is a prominent example. This paper attempts to address this gap by employing the Vector Auto-Regression model to explore the impact of oil price shocks on the main variables of the Sudan’s government budget using quarterly data for the period 2000:q1-2011:q2. The empirical results suggest that oil price decreases significantly influences oil revenues, current expenditure and budget deficit. However, oil price increases do not Granger cause budget variables. Results from the impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition analysis suggest that oil price shocks have asymmetric effect on government budget.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: VAR model, oil price shocks, Sudan
Subjects: G300 Statistics
H100 General Engineering
L100 Economics
Divisions: Faculty of Computing, Engineering and the Built Environment
Faculty of Computing, Engineering and the Built Environment > School of Engineering and the Built Environment
REF UoA Output Collections > REF 2021 UoA12: Engineering
Depositing User: Noel Perera
Date Deposited: 05 Dec 2018 10:28
Last Modified: 06 Dec 2018 11:11
URI: http://www.open-access.bcu.ac.uk/id/eprint/6623

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