Exploring the use of a general equilibrium method to assess the value of a malaria vaccine: an application to Ghana

Yerushalmi, Erez and Hunt, Priscillia and Hoorens, Stijn and Sauboin, Christophe and Smith, Richard (2019) Exploring the use of a general equilibrium method to assess the value of a malaria vaccine: an application to Ghana. Medical Decision Making Policy & Practice (MDM P&P), 4 (2). ISSN 23814683

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Malaria is an important health and economic burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Conventional economic evaluations typically consider only direct costs to the healthcare system and government budgets. This paper quantifies the potential impact of malaria vaccination on the wider economy, using Ghana as an example

METHODS: We used a computable general equilibrium model of the Ghanaian economy to estimate the macroeconomic impact of malaria vaccination in children under the age of five, with a vaccine efficacy of 50% against clinical malaria and 20% against malaria mortality. The model considered changes in demography and labor productivity, and projected gross domestic product (GDP) over a time frame of 30 years. Vaccine coverage ranging from 20% to 100% was compared with a baseline with no vaccination.

RESULTS: Malaria vaccination with 100% coverage was projected to increase the GDP of Ghana over 30 years by US$6.93 billion (in 2015 prices) above the baseline without vaccination, equivalent to an increase in annual GDP growth of 0.5%. Projected GDP per capita would increase in the first year due to immediate reductions in time lost from work by adults caring for children with malaria, then decrease for several years as reductions in child mortality increase the number of dependent children, then show a sustained increase after Year 11 due to long-term productivity improvements in adults resulting from fewer malaria episodes in childhood.

CONCLUSION: Investing in improving childhood health by vaccinating against malaria could result in substantial long-term macroeconomic benefits when these children enter the workforce as adults. These macroeconomic benefits are not captured by conventional economic evaluations and constitute an important potential benefit of vaccination.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: A supplementary appendix is also provided online.
Identification Number: https://doi.org/10.1177/2381468319894345
Date: 19 December 2019
Uncontrolled Keywords: malaria vaccine; general equilibrium; human capital; public health; economic growth; Ghana
Subjects: A300 Clinical Medicine
A900 Others in Medicine and Dentistry
G200 Operational Research
L100 Economics
L400 Social Policy
Divisions: Faculty of Business, Law and Social Sciences > Birmingham City Business School > Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics
Faculty of Business, Law and Social Sciences > Birmingham City Business School > Centre for Applied Finance and Economics
REF UoA Output Collections > REF2021 UoA17: Business and Management Studies
Depositing User: Erez Yerushalmi
Date Deposited: 03 Jan 2020 12:13
Last Modified: 03 Jan 2020 12:13
URI: http://www.open-access.bcu.ac.uk/id/eprint/8562

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