Estimating the global economic benefits of physically active populations over 30 years (2020 to 2050)

Hafner, Marco and Yerushalmi, Erez and Stepanek, Martin and Phillips, William and Pollard, Jack and Deshpande, Advait and Whitmore, Michael and Millard, Francois and Subel, Shaun and Van Stolk, Christian (2020) Estimating the global economic benefits of physically active populations over 30 years (2020 to 2050). British Journal of Sports Medicine. ISSN 0306-3674 (In Press)

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Abstract

OBJECTIVES: We assess the potential benefits of increased physical activity on the global economy for 23 countries and the rest of the world over a 30-year time horizon (from 2020 to 2050). The main factors taken into account in the economic assessment are excess mortality and lower productivity.

METHODS: This study links three methodologies. First, we estimate the association between physical inactivity and workplace productivity using multivariable regression models with proprietary data on 120,143 individuals in the UK and six Asian countries (Australia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore and Sri Lanka). Second, we analyse the association between physical activity and mortality risk through a meta-regression analysis with data from 74 prior studies with global coverage. Finally, the estimated effects are combined in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) macroeconomic model to project the economic benefits of physical inactivity over time.

RESULTS: Doing at least 150 minutes of moderate-intensity physical activity, as per lower limit of the range recommended by the 2020 World Health Organisation guidelines, would lead to an increase in global GDP of 0.16%-0.23% per year by 2050, worth up to US $314-$446 billion per year and $6.0-$8.6 trillion cumulatively over the 30-year projection horizon (in 2019 prices). The results vary by country due to differences in baseline levels of physical activity and GDP per capita.

CONCLUSIONS: Increasing physical activity in the population would lead to reduction in working-age mortality and morbidity and an increase in productivity, particularly through lower presenteeism, leading to substantial economic gains for the global economy.

Item Type: Article
Date: 3 September 2020
Uncontrolled Keywords: physical activity, economic benefits, workplace productivity, computable general equilibrium, probability of dying
Subjects: A100 Pre-clinical Medicine
A300 Clinical Medicine
B900 Others in Subjects allied to Medicine
C600 Sports Science
L100 Economics
N300 Finance
Divisions: Faculty of Business, Law and Social Sciences > Birmingham City Business School > Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics
Faculty of Business, Law and Social Sciences > Birmingham City Business School > Centre for Applied Finance and Economics
Depositing User: Erez Yerushalmi
Date Deposited: 08 Sep 2020 09:43
Last Modified: 08 Sep 2020 09:43
URI: http://www.open-access.bcu.ac.uk/id/eprint/9862

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