Estimating the global economic benefits of physically active populations over 30 years (2020 to 2050)

Hafner, Marco and Yerushalmi, Erez and Stepanek, Martin and Phillips, William and Pollard, Jack and Deshpande, Advait and Whitmore, Michael and Millard, Francois and Subel, Shaun and Van Stolk, Christian (2020) Estimating the global economic benefits of physically active populations over 30 years (2020 to 2050). Working Paper 8. Centre for Applied Finance and Economics (CAFE), Birmingham City Business School, Birmingham City University.

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Abstract

OBJECTIVES: We assess the potential benefits of increased physical activity on the global economy for 23 countries and the rest of the world over a 30-year time horizon (from 2020 to 2050). The main factors taken into account in the economic assessment are excess mortality and lower productivity.

METHODS: This study links three methodologies. First, we estimate the association between physical inactivity and workplace productivity using multivariable regression models with proprietary data on 120,143 individuals in the UK and six Asian countries (Australia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore and Sri Lanka). Second, we analyse the association between physical activity and mortality risk through a meta-regression analysis with data from 74 prior studies with global coverage. Finally, the estimated effects are combined in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) macroeconomic model to project the economic benefits of physical inactivity over time.

RESULTS: Doing at least 150 minutes of moderate-intensity physical activity, as per lower limit of the range recommended by the 2020 World Health Organisation guidelines, would lead to an increase in global GDP of 0.16%-0.23% per year by 2050, worth up to US $314-$446 billion per year and $6.0-$8.6 trillion cumulatively over the 30-year projection horizon (in 2019 prices). The results vary by country due to differences in baseline levels of physical activity and GDP per capita.

CONCLUSIONS: Increasing physical activity in the population would lead to reduction in working-age mortality and morbidity and an increase in productivity, particularly through lower presenteeism, leading to substantial economic gains for the global economy.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Identification Number: 8
Dates:
Date
Event
25 August 2020
Submitted
25 November 2020
Published
Uncontrolled Keywords: physical activity, economic benefits, workplace productivity, computable general equilibrium, probability of dying
Subjects: CAH01 - medicine and dentistry > CAH01-01 - medicine and dentistry > CAH01-01-01 - medical sciences (non-specific)
CAH02 - subjects allied to medicine > CAH02-06 - allied health > CAH02-06-06 - complementary and alternative medicine
CAH03 - biological and sport sciences > CAH03-02 - sport and exercise sciences > CAH03-02-01 - sport and exercise sciences
CAH15 - social sciences > CAH15-02 - economics > CAH15-02-01 - economics
Divisions: Faculty of Business, Law and Social Sciences > College of Accountancy, Finance and Economics > Centre for Accountancy Finance and Economics
Faculty of Business, Law and Social Sciences > College of Accountancy, Finance and Economics
Faculty of Business, Law and Social Sciences > College of Business, Digital Transformation & Entrepreneurship
Depositing User: Erez Yerushalmi
Date Deposited: 17 Dec 2020 14:46
Last Modified: 20 Jun 2024 12:06
URI: https://www.open-access.bcu.ac.uk/id/eprint/10582

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