Application of Machine Learning to Predict COVID-19 Spread via an Optimized BPSO Model

Alkhammash, Eman H. and Assiri, Sara Ahmad and Nemenqani, Dalal M. and Althaqafi, Raad M. M. and Hadjouni, Myriam and Saeed, Faisal and Elshewey, Ahmed M. (2023) Application of Machine Learning to Predict COVID-19 Spread via an Optimized BPSO Model. Biomimetics, 8 (6). p. 457. ISSN 2313-7673

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During the pandemic of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), statistics showed that the number of affected cases differed from one country to another and also from one city to another. Therefore, in this paper, we provide an enhanced model for predicting COVID-19 samples in different regions of Saudi Arabia (high-altitude and sea-level areas). The model is developed using several stages and was successfully trained and tested using two datasets that were collected from Taif city (high-altitude area) and Jeddah city (sea-level area) in Saudi Arabia. Binary particle swarm optimization (BPSO) is used in this study for making feature selections using three different machine learning models, i.e., the random forest model, gradient boosting model, and naive Bayes model. A number of predicting evaluation metrics including accuracy, training score, testing score, F-measure, recall, precision, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were calculated to verify the performance of the three machine learning models on these datasets. The experimental results demonstrated that the gradient boosting model gives better results than the random forest and naive Bayes models with an accuracy of 94.6% using the Taif city dataset. For the dataset of Jeddah city, the results demonstrated that the random forest model outperforms the gradient boosting and naive Bayes models with an accuracy of 95.5%. The dataset of Jeddah city achieved better results than the dataset of Taif city in Saudi Arabia using the enhanced model for the term of accuracy.

Item Type: Article
Identification Number:
21 September 2023Accepted
28 September 2023Published Online
Uncontrolled Keywords: k-nearest neighbor, binary particle swarm optimization, random oversampling, random forest model, gradient boosting model, naive Bayes model
Subjects: CAH11 - computing > CAH11-01 - computing > CAH11-01-01 - computer science
Divisions: Faculty of Computing, Engineering and the Built Environment > School of Computing and Digital Technology
Depositing User: Gemma Tonks
Date Deposited: 15 Feb 2024 15:42
Last Modified: 15 Feb 2024 15:42

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