The role of tourism in driving economic growth: An asymmetric augmented autoregressive distributed lag analysis of Singapore's experience
Karimi, Mohammad Sharif and Karamelikli, Huseyin and Naysary, Babak (2024) The role of tourism in driving economic growth: An asymmetric augmented autoregressive distributed lag analysis of Singapore's experience. International Journal of Tourism Research, 26 (4). ISSN 1099-2340
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Journal of Tourism Research - 2024 - Karimi - The role of tourism in driving economic growth An asymmetric augmented.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (1MB) |
Abstract
Tourism has long been recognized as a potential force for economic growth in various parts of the globe. This study revisits this causal relationship to demonstrate the consequences of long-run and short-run effects between tourism development and economic growth in the context of Singapore for the period 1983:1 to 2020:4. We employ an augmented autoregressive distributed lag (AARDL) to prevent degenerative results and ensure the robustness of findings. We also control for variables such as foreign direct investment, net export, gross fixed capital formation, labor, and government expenditure. The overall empirical results provide support for the positive implications of tourism development for economic growth in Singapore in the long run, and its elasticity is 0.14 in increasing and 0.08 in decreasing. This implies that tourism can be one of the important factors for Singapore's economic growth in the long run, but in the short run, the impact is either negative or insignificant. This study provides important policy implications and recommendations.
| Item Type: | Article | ||||||
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| Identification Number: | https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2696 | ||||||
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| Uncontrolled Keywords: | AARDL, economic growth, Singapore, tourism | ||||||
| Subjects: | CAH17 - business and management > CAH17-01 - business and management > CAH17-01-02 - business studies | ||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Business, Law and Social Sciences > College of Business, Digital Transformation & Entrepreneurship | ||||||
| Depositing User: | Gemma Tonks | ||||||
| Date Deposited: | 18 Sep 2024 12:17 | ||||||
| Last Modified: | 18 Sep 2024 12:17 | ||||||
| URI: | https://www.open-access.bcu.ac.uk/id/eprint/15858 |
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