Modeling tunnel construction risk dynamics: Addressing the production versus protection problem

Wang, F. and Ding, L. and Love, P.E.D. and Edwards, D.J. (2016) Modeling tunnel construction risk dynamics: Addressing the production versus protection problem. Safety Science, 87. pp. 101-115. ISSN 09257535 (ISSN)

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Abstract

Accidents remain a pervasive problem in tunnel construction. A major contributor to these accidents is a construction contractor's inability to determine an appropriate trade-off between production and protection goals. Thus, to examine this issue, a systemic model, which integrates System Dynamics (SD), Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) and smooth Relevance Vector Machines (sRVM) (referred to as 'Organizational Risk Dynamics Observer' (ORDO)), is developed to investigate the mechanism of risk migration that resulted from the interactions between a contractor's organizational and technical systems. The model is demonstrated on an urban metro tunnel project that was constructed in Wuhan, China. It is revealed that when attention focused upon production, the propensity for minor accidents to occur increased, which triggered management to focus on protection. This increasing emphasis on protection may have muted the safe systems of working as incidents may be unreported, which can inhibit the motivation for safety awareness. When coupled with an increase in production pressure, the tunnelling project could become prone to experiencing a major accident. Based on the results, it is suggested that the whole organization must continue to foster a sound safety culture by resisting production pressure at the expense of compromising safety. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Bayesian belief network, Risk modeling, Smooth relevance vector machine, System dynamics, Tunnels, Accidents, Bayesian networks, Contractors, Decision theory, Economic and social effects, Knowledge based systems, Safety engineering, System theory, Construction contractors, Relevance Vector Machine, Risk model, System Dynamics, Systemic modeling, Technical systems, Tunnel construction, Tunneling project, Tunnels
Subjects: H700 Production and Manufacturing Engineering
K200 Building
Divisions: Faculty of Computing, Engineering and the Built Environment
Faculty of Computing, Engineering and the Built Environment > School of Engineering and the Built Environment
Faculty of Computing, Engineering and the Built Environment > School of Engineering and the Built Environment > Integrated Design Construction
UoA Collections > UoA15: General Engineering
Depositing User: Miss Jessica Baylis
Date Deposited: 09 Jun 2016 07:41
Last Modified: 15 Aug 2017 09:20
URI: http://www.open-access.bcu.ac.uk/id/eprint/488

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